Disclosures

In short

• Settlis is a participant on CFTC-registered exchanges, never an exchange. Information only; not advice.
• Settlis also trades these markets, and its orders may be among the prices shown.
• Paper results are hypothetical. No real money is involved.
• Settlis promises no return and no result.

Who Settlis is

Settlis is operated by AiDD Inc., a Delaware corporation doing business as Settlis.

Settlis is a participant on CFTC-registered exchanges, never an exchange. Orders rest on the exchange, and the exchange matches them. Settlis does not match orders, does not hold your money and does not place orders for you.

The tools on this site are free and need no account at any exchange. If you trade, you do it yourself, in your own account, under the rules of the exchange you trade on.

Conflict of interest: Settlis trades these markets

Settlis also trades these markets, and its orders may be among the prices shown.

Settlis buys and sells contracts on the exchanges this site covers, with real money, to make a profit. That creates conflicts you should know about.

• The price you see may be Settlis's. A bid or an ask on the board may be Settlis's own order, and so may the one named as the best place to buy. Settlis's orders are not marked. If you trade at that price, Settlis may be on the other side of your trade, and it placed that order because it expected to profit from it.
• Settlis may hold positions. Settlis may hold a position in any market shown, on either side, and may trade at any time, before and after it publishes a number.
• Exchanges may pay Settlis for trading. Exchanges pay rebates and incentives to firms that keep orders resting in their books, and Settlis may receive them. Settlis can gain when more trading happens where its orders rest.
• Some fair prices are held back. For some groups of markets, Settlis publishes its fair price only once the event starts, to protect its own trading. Before the start you are not seeing everything Settlis knows.
• The fair price and Settlis's trading share their inputs. The fair price is built from the same kind of information Settlis uses when it trades.

What Settlis does about it

• The best place to buy is worked out from price and fee alone. Settlis's own orders and positions play no part in that arithmetic.
• The pages are the same for every visitor, and they are built once a day on a fixed clock.
• A fair price is held back for a whole league and market type at a time, never for one market.
• The record published the next day shows every fair price, including the ones held back and the ones that missed.

These steps reduce the conflict. They do not remove it. The Methodology page has more detail.

Information only; not advice

Everything on this site is general information. It is the same for every visitor. It takes no account of your money, your goals or your circumstances, and nobody at Settlis has considered whether any trade suits you.

Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any contract, and nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. A page that names the best place to buy is comparing costs. It is not telling you to buy.

Trading event contracts is risky. You can lose all the money you put in. Decide for yourself, and ask a qualified professional if you need advice.

No promised results

Settlis promises no return, no profit and no result. A fair price is an estimate, and it can be wrong. The prices, fees and results shown here can be late, incomplete or mistaken. Past results do not guarantee future results.

Paper results are hypothetical

Paper trading uses no real money and places no orders on any exchange. Its results are simulated. Paper results are hypothetical.

Hypothetical results have real limits:

• They are worked out from public records of past trades. Nobody traded.
• Settlis cannot know where a resting order would have stood in the queue, or whether it would have traded at all.
• A real order changes the market it trades in. A simulated one does not.
• A test on past trades is run with hindsight. Try enough variations and one of them will look good by chance.
• Fees are applied by formula and may differ from what the exchange would have charged.
• Real trading brings pressures a simulation does not: money at risk, orders that do not trade, outages, and the decision to stop.

Nobody should expect real trading to match paper results. Settlis does not say that any account will achieve, or is likely to achieve, results like the ones shown.

Settlis’s own trading record

The Our strategies page shows strategies Settlis runs with real money on these exchanges. It is a record of past trading. It is not an offer and it is not an invitation to invest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

About the data

• Exchange prices are snapshots taken at a stated time. They are not live, and they may differ from what the exchange shows now.
• The Settlis fair price is derived by Settlis from sportsbook quotes. Settlis does not publish those quotes, and the fair price is not any sportsbook's price.
• Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig are the names and marks of their owners. Settlis is not owned by any of them and does not speak for them. Naming one of them here is not an endorsement by it, or of it.

The waitlist

Settlis has described a shared pool that it hopes to offer in the future. That pool is not yet registered or open, and Settlis accepts no money for it.

Joining the waitlist is not an offer to sell anything, and it is not a request for an offer to buy anything. It reserves no place and commits neither you nor Settlis to anything. You can leave at any time by writing to support@settlis.com.

Questions

Write to support@settlis.com. The Terms of use and the Privacy policy also apply to your use of this site.